I must clarify at the outset that I am legally incompetent when it comes to the traffic light system in the aquaculture industry. Since the scheme was introduced in 2017, I have worked for the fish farmers in PO 3 and PO 4 with the task of casting a critical light on the traffic light regulation.
We are now facing the third round of capacity adjustments in the aquaculture industry on the basis of the traffic light scheme. The adjustments take place every two years. The decisions related to the capacity adjustments for 2022 and 2023 will probably take place in February 2022. Then the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries will set the so-called traffic lights - and in addition issue regulations on possible reductions in red areas and on the distribution of growth and auctions etc. in green areas.
The proceedings related to the capacity adjustments in 2022 have been different from those carried out in previous years. As before, there is a report prepared by a group of researchers (the “Expert Group”) which is the professional basis for the traffic lights. In previous years, this report was kept secret until the Ministry made its traffic light decision. However, following pressure from the fish farmers, this report was published this year in November, and a dialogue meeting and a hearing were also held after publication. A final report will then be prepared by the Control Group - which is a smaller group of researchers who assess the Expert Group’s work. This means that the Ministry will now be presented in a completely different way to the uncertainty and disagreement that exists around the professional basis for traffic lights. In addition, there has now been an international evaluation which raises fundamental questions about the traffic light system and the Expert Group’s work and which provides comprehensive recommendations for improving the work.
Many will probably perceive the resistance to production reductions by the fish farmers in Western Norway as a predictable reaction based on their own business interests. However, this is also a resistance based on the fact that the fish farmers do not recognise the professional basis for the drawdown. The fish farmers have engaged competent professional resources to penetrate the Expert Group’s assessments, and when the opposition to the system is so strong among fish farmers in Western Norway, it is also because their own professionals have questioned the main conclusions of the Expert Group.
The professional questions relating to the traffic light system are many and difficult, and the uncertainty in the professional conclusions is great. There are also some general questions that are central. Extensive work is being done to assess population development in wild salmon, and there has been a positive development of wild salmon populations in Western Norway over the past ten years. In the fish farms, the biomass has increased, while the farmers have succeeded in reducing the amount of lice on the fish in the fish farms. The reports from the Expert Group, and earlier similar assessments, have claimed that there is a high mortality rate among emigrating wild salmon smolts due to lice from the fish farms. It is therefore difficult to make the Expert Group’s conclusions to correspond with the development that is actually taking place in the wild salmon stocks.
From the same reason, it is also difficult to see that a reduction in the biomass in the fish farms is necessary. As there is no connection between the growth in the fish farming industry and the development of wild salmon stock, there is little reason to believe that a reduction in the industry will help the wild salmon. A reduction of the production will probably lead to the creation of value in the industry being weakened, and important district work places disappearing, without achieving anything.
On the other side, the wild salmon is recently read-listed, without being connected to the traffic light system. Therefore, a number of measures is required to strengthen the stock. The administration of the wild salmon is a complicated environmental regulation project. Such work requires ongoing collection and evaluation of new knowledge and using the knowledge for constantly improved measures. Unfortunately, the traffic light system has provisionally been a project where one keeps a method that doesn’t seem to work. The consultation process this fall and the new international evaluation committee’s report are important contributions to show that the traffic light system does not work as intended. Hopefully, 2022 will be the year when the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Fisheries will acknowledge this.